2026 Trends with Lucian Grosaru, Sema Real Estate

2026 Trends with Lucian Grosaru, Sema Real Estate

2026 Trends with Lucian Grosaru, Sema Real Estate 1200 600 BUCHAREST REAL ESTATE CLUB

24.02.2026

Lucian Grosaru, CEO, Sema Real Estate

What were the main business results for 2025?

2025 was a breakthrough year. We launched Sema Home, our first residential development, and the market response has been exceptional.

Pre-sales opened in mid-October. By now, buyers have already reserved more than a third of the 301 apartments. That speed confirms strong market demand.

What we are seeing is validation of our core thesis: buyers increasingly prioritize location, transit access, and integrated amenities over standalone residential buildings. The Sema Parc Masterplan was designed around this insight, and the sales performance demonstrates that buyers value this approach.

The broader trend is clear. Mixed-use developments with functional infrastructure are gaining market share at the expense of isolated apartment towers.

What are the company’s business targets and plans for 2026?

On the residential side, we aim to maintain momentum with Sema Home by completing the first phase and preparing subsequent stages for launch. The demand is there.

Beyond that, we have two priorities. First, strengthen our office and mixed-use portfolio where we see value creation opportunities. Second, advancing the next phases of development within Sema Parc. Our strategy is to build out the full masterplan rather than pursuing scattered sites. This allows us to create genuine neighborhood value and benefit from the infrastructure and community we are establishing.

Across all activities, energy efficiency and operational performance remain central. Market expectations have shifted. Buildings that underperform on energy costs will face competitive pressure within five years.

WWhat economic pressures or regulatory and fiscal changes do you anticipate impacting the market in 2026, and how is your company preparing for them?

2026 will be challenging. Inflation persists, labor costs continue rising, and construction material prices remain volatile. Recent VAT changes and new compliance requirements added further cost pressure.

On the regulatory side, tighter market discipline rules raise standards but also increase procedural and financial complexity. This is beneficial long-term but adds immediate cost.

Our response focuses on three areas. First, disciplined financial planning with conservative assumptions. Second, flexible supplier contracts that avoid locking in unfavorable pricing. Third, diversified procurement to reduce dependency on single sources.

We are also accelerating digitalization to improve operational efficiency. While we cannot control external cost pressures, we can control our operational response to them.

What do you see as the main risks for the Romanian real estate market in 2026?

The primary risk is uncertainty. Macroeconomic instability and geopolitical tension reduce investor confidence, tighten financing conditions, and disrupt supply chains. Projects with solid fundamentals six months ago may no longer be viable.

Domestically, slow permitting processes and insufficient new residential supply create additional constraints. Construction cost volatility makes long-term project commitments difficult.

The greatest concern is developer consolidation. Projects lacking disciplined financials or conservative planning assumptions will face severe pressure. The market will reveal which developments were built on solid fundamentals versus optimistic projections.

The market will survive. Not all participants will.

Where do you see the most attractive opportunities for growth in 2026?

Location remains paramount, but context matters increasingly. The strongest opportunities are in mixed-use developments within neighborhoods that have functional infrastructure: reliable transit, utilities, and road systems.

Successful projects will reflect current lifestyle preferences rather than outdated models. Energy-efficient buildings are now baseline requirements. Buyers and tenants evaluate operating costs, and buildings with poor energy performance will lose competitive positioning.

Energy infrastructure itself represents significant opportunity. Solar installations, battery storage, and systems that reduce long-term operating costs deliver both financial returns and asset value appreciation.

The pattern is clear: projects that reduce costs, increase convenience, or improve quality of life will find demand. Undifferentiated residential products will be a struggle.

Which players or strategies are going to be winners in 2026?

Winners will be developers who execute reliably. In a difficult market, delivery capability separates viable players from the rest. This requires adequate capital, operational experience, and a verifiable track record.

Financial strength is essential. Developers who survive will be those who planned for adverse scenarios rather than only favorable outcomes. Business models dependent on optimal conditions represent excessive risk.

Successful developers also recognize that buildings must evolve. Mixed-use spreads risk. Energy efficiency protects value. These are requirements, not preferences.

The decisive advantage is reputation. In a cautious market, trust matters more than marketing. Developers known for on-time, on-budget delivery secure opportunities before formal negotiations begin.