BUCHAREST REAL ESTATE CLUB

Shaping a New Era of Development in Southeast Europe

Positive economic outlook drives investors’ focus to Romania and SEE region in 2018

Positive economic outlook drives investors’ focus to Romania and SEE region in 2018 920 420 BUCHAREST REAL ESTATE CLUB

Positive economic outlook drives investors’ focus

to Romania and SEE region in 2018

With another year of economic healthy grow predicted for Europe, Romania is the star of the SEE region, as forecasts of the European Commission are for a 4.4% increase in 2018 of the local economy.

“The dominant theme for real estate capital markets in 2018 is the tension between the pressure to invest and the fear that real estate is late in the cycle, highly priced and thus carries latent risk”, as states the Emerging Trends in Real Estate®: Europe 2018 survey by PwC & Urban Land Institute.

According to JLL estimations, the total volume of real estate investment deals might reach the sum of one billion EUR in 2017. The estimations are based on the value of the deals closed in the first semester, namely 485 million EUR.

The year was characterized by the entry of two new players on the market, both of SouthAfrican origin.

  • Atterbury Europe bought 50% of the group founded by local businessman, Iulian Dascalu, comprising of 4 shopping malls and 3 office buildings.
  • Growthpoint acquired 26.9% from Globalworth, the real estate investment fund established by Ioannis Papalekas, at a value estimated at 186.4 million EUR.

Both vendors use the capital to further expand their presence on the market. Towards the end of the year, Globalworth was again in the news, as EBRD entered the shareholding with a 4% stake.

While the appetite for development of Globalworth increased significantly in 2017, the other major player on the market, NEPI wasn’t involved in any acquisition. The company finalized the merger with Rockcastle and strategically wants to focus on the retail segment, planning to sell the office portfolio in 2018.

In a wish to cash in from the effervescence on the real estate market, corporations have begun to sell their real estate assets to focus on the core-business:

  • Telekom has sold to Forte Partners a land downtown Bucharest and plans to sell Tandem building located in the same area.
  • OMV Petrom also announced plans to sell a building located in an area targeted by real estate investors – Aviatiei, near Barbu Vacarescu – Floreasca hub.

TOP INVESTMENT DEALS IN 2017

The top was compiled by BUCHAREST REAL ESTATE CLUB, based on the information issued by major consultancy companies.

PwC: Logistics ranked no. 1 for Investment in Europe

PwC: Logistics ranked no. 1 for Investment in Europe 1200 800 BUCHAREST REAL ESTATE CLUB

PwC: Logistics ranked no.1

for Investment in Europe

General economic outlook is positive, with expectations for profits and headcounts to increase in 2018, according to Emerging Trends in Real Estate®: Europe 2018 survey by PwC & Urban Land Institute, based on 512 respondents from across 22 European countries. The key issues impacting businesses this year are the availability of suitable assets/land and construction costs.

MAIN TRENDS

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN THE FOCUS

Given the impact of technology upon real estate, industrial sector is ranked number one for investment and development prospects in 2018, largely on the back of the growth in online retail sales.

“Technological change is clearly playing out in the retail sector, and as retail shrinks, logistics expands, as does the last-mile delivery convenience to the consumer”, says one global capital markets adviser.

RESIDENTIAL HITS TIPPING POINT

Until recently, residential was seen by many institutional players as a niche sector, and for some, too specialist. Today, the industry appears less bothered by the obstacles to investment and increasingly swayed by the opportunities that could emerge from huge housing shortages across Europe. The Emerging Trends Europe survey reveals availability of affordable housing as one of the key social problems facing the industry in 2018 – more of a concern than environmental issues and mass migration.

REDEVELOPMENT INSTEAD OF SPECULATIVE DEVELOPMENT

Redevelopment is the most attractive way to acquire prime assets, thus translating into a low-risk strategy based on astute asset management and refurbishment rather than a hasty return to speculative development.

SMART ASSET MANAGEMENT

The greater importance attached to asset management reinforces the trend by institutional investors towards employing fewer and larger managers. Low returns and a lack of product in a late-cycle market have underlined the importance of “smart asset management”.

We are not going to be able to generate the returns we want by buying assets and sitting on them,” says one pan-European investment manager. “We have to think about the management of the tenants, refurbishment and re-gearing.

In Romania, Skanska is to implement the virtual reception concept in Campus 6 project

CO-WORKING TAKES HOLD

The rise of the flexible office sector and co-working stands out in Emerging Trends Europe. They are much more than simply property buzzwords but, as the interviews reveal, a workplace phenomenon whose influence has taken hold of the European industry in a profound way since last year’s report.

As landlords we have to be more flexible,” says one convert to co-working. “Tenants are asking for shorter leases and break options. It requires a change in mindset and a willingness to take more risk.
“Not everything is going to be WeWork,” says one value-add investor. “I still think there’s a huge amount of money to be made in traditional offices with larger occupiers. But the proportion of the market will grow for co-working, smaller companies, incubator space. Flexibility within buildings – the ability to sub-divide – becomes increasingly important, which comes back to obsolescence.

In Romania, Impact Hub inaungurated a new premises last autumn in Vastint’s Timpuri Noi Square project.

Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2018 reveals an industry that is becoming more complex, yet more transparent and accessible. Whatever the outcome, it is certain that the industry will need new skill sets, new ways of collaborating outside traditional industry boundaries and new business models to survive and compete in the new real estate ecosystem. You can read more info about the survey here.